July 1, 2024
Immunology is second only to oncology in terms of size. Several of its biggest medicines face LOEs soon, while others have years of additional growth and indication expansion ahead:
1. Humira sales continue to evolve: in Q1, Humira achieved an annualized revenue rate of $9B, which compares to $14B last year, and $21B in 2022. The rate of decline is already starting to slow, so it will be interesting to see where it settles steady-state.
AbbVie has managed the transition well, and rising sales of Skyrizi and Rinvoq are expected to continue - in February, AbbVie raised sales forecasts for the two drugs to $27B by 2027, up from $21B previously.
2. J&J's Stelara will have 2024 as its last full year of exclusivity in the US. The terms of the settlement agreements the company has reached with generics manufacturers including Biocon mean competition is likely to begin in early 2025.
3. Dupixent continues to power ahead. Last year it achieved $11.6B in worldwide sales, and this year it is on track to reach nearly $14B.
One notable boost would be indication expansion for COPD, which is likely to come in the coming months given a target review date of Sept. 2024.
