July 29, 2024
AbbVie reported its Q2 earnings last week, raising guidance for the second time this year, as it continues to find growth post-Humira. This analysis will focus on the strength in the immunology segment and the challenges faced in the aesthetics segment.
Immunology Strength
The strong performance by Skyrizi and Rinvoq continues to drive overall results, with the two delivering growth of 50% on their fifth full year on the market.
Guidance Raised
- AbbVie raised global sales guidance for Skyrizi by 300M to 11B.
- AbbVie raised global sales guidance for Rinvoq by 100M to 5.7B based on continued growth in inflammatory bowel disease, in particular.
Notable Market Share Figures (US)
Skyrizi:
- 38% share in Psoriasis
- 15% share in psoriatic arthritis
Rinvoq:
- 10% share of atopic dermatitis
Gastrointestinal (GI) Focus
GI is a big focus area for these two medicines. Skyrizi received approval in Ulcerative Colitis in June. The two have a combined 40% share of the Crohn's disease market in the US, with Skyrizi specifically now 13% ahead of J&J's Stelara in market share.
The advantage in Crohn's disease came after AbbVie released detailed results of a head-to-head trial last October. In the SEQUENCE trial, remission rates (as measured by the Crohn's Disease Activity Index) were 61% for those on Skyrizi vs. 41% for those on Stelara.
However, J&J is also pushing ahead by advancing Stelara's would-be replacement, Tremfya, in Crohn's. Results released in May from the GALAXI trial showed Tremfya delivered up to 7% greater clinical remission (using the same measure from the Crohn's Disease Activity Index) compared to Stelara.
While comparing across studies should be done with caution, J&J's argument will be that the appropriate comparison is not with Stelara, but with Tremfya.
Overall, the IL-23 space is a crowded one, and the competition shows no signs of slowing down.
Aesthetics Remain a Weak Spot in the Short Run
While immunology remains an area of strength, aesthetics showed more challenged results. Overall segment sales were flat from the prior year, with modest growth in Botox Cosmetic offset by a decline in sales by Juvéderm.
Management attributed the weaker performance to economic headwinds. It called out Juvéderm's higher price point as being the cause for its larger relative decline.
Long term, aesthetics is still a solid business for AbbVie because, unlike most other biopharma medicines, Botox isn't protected by a patent and is instead protected via a trademark and trade secrets that never expire.
As populations around the world age and live longer, you can count on the fact that people will put more effort than ever into looking younger.
