September 25, 2024
Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk: Riding the Wave of GLP-1 Success
It comes as no surprise that Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk emerged as frontrunners in the biopharma industry's growth trajectory. Eli Lilly experienced a staggering 62% year-over-year (YoY) increase in market capitalization, while Novo Nordisk demonstrated an impressive 37% YoY gain. This performance can be attributed to the expanding indications and increasing supply of their respective glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists. The GLP-1 market has witnessed unprecedented growth, with projections indicating that it will reach a staggering $142 billion by 2030.
AbbVie: Diversifying Growth Drivers
AbbVie demonstrated a 27% YoY market capitalization gain from late September 2023 to 2024, driven by the strong performance of its immunology drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq. In Q2 2024, Skyrizi and Rinvoq saw impressive YoY revenue increases of 43% and 58%, respectively. Recognizing the potential of these drugs, AbbVie raised its 2027 forecast for Skyrizi and Rinvoq sales by $6 billion, now predicting a combined revenue of $27 billion.
Additionally, AbbVie’s recent acquisition of ImmunoGen and the subsequent approval of the acquired ovarian cancer treatment, Elahere (mirvetuximab soravtansine), have positioned the company for further growth. Elahere, a first-in-class antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) for ovarian cancer, received FDA approval in March 2024 for certain ovarian cancers and recently received a positive opinion from the EMA's CHMP, paving the way for imminent approval in Europe.
Notably, Elahere demonstrated a 35% reduction in the risk of cancer progression and a 33% overall survival (OS) benefit compared to investigator-chosen chemotherapy. It is the first treatment to show a statistically significant OS benefit in patients with platinum-resistant ovarian cancer and folate receptor alpha-positive tumors, providing a new option for patients who previously had very limited choices. Analysts estimate that Elahere may achieve peak sales exceeding $2 billion, underscoring its potential to drive AbbVie's future growth.
Amgen: Diversifying Therapeutic Areas
Amgen's 27% YoY market capitalization gain was driven by several factors, including excitement surrounding its weight loss medicine MariTide, the acquisition of Horizon Therapeutics, and the strong sales of its bone-building drug Evenity and cholesterol-lowering medication Repatha.
Amgen is actively advancing MariTide, a bispecific molecule that simultaneously activates the GLP-1 receptor while blocking the GIP receptor, into a Phase III clinical program. The company is exploring MariTide's potential in addressing weight-related conditions such as heart, kidney, and liver diseases. A key advantage of MariTide over its competitors, Novo Nordisk's Wegovy and Eli Lilly's Zepbound, is its longer duration of effect, potentially allowing for monthly or less frequent administration.
